一种基于LSTM模型的TLE数据空间目标变轨检测算法

    AN LSTM Based Detection Algorithm for Space Target Maneuvering Using TLE Data

    • 摘要: 随着近地轨道卫星数量的急剧增加,特别是低轨巨型星座的大规模部署,以卫星为主要对象的空间目标变轨检测已成为空间交通安全管理的关键技术。传统的空间目标变轨检测的算法中,阈值法对复杂空间扰动敏感虚警率高。基于固定动力学模型的检测法严重依赖模型精度,模型失配或未知机动模式易导致漏检难以适应实际多变的空间环境。在介绍了轨道根数的物理意义和计算过程,分析了变轨检测的主要理论与算法,并对比了不同方法的优缺点后,分析了长短期记忆网络的算法原理及其在变轨检测中的优势,进而提出一种基于长短期记忆网络的空间目标变轨检测方法。通过分析TLE数据中相邻周期轨道根数的变化作为空间目标变轨特征,使用TLE数据对LSTM进行训练,得到了检测空间目标变轨的LSTM算法。通过TLE数据的测试表明,本文提出的LSTM算法的变轨检测精度优于传统方法,为大规模卫星星座的轨道异常检测提供了新的决方案。

       

      Abstract: With the rapid increase in the number of near-Earth orbit satellites, especially the large-scale deployment of low-orbit mega-constellations, the detection of orbital maneuvers has become a critical technology for space traffic safety management, primarily satellites. Among traditional algorithms for space target maneuver detection, threshold-based methods are highly sensitive to complex spatial disturbances and prone to high false alarm rates. Detection methods based on fixed dynamic models heavily rely on model accuracy, model mismatch or unknown maneuver patterns easily lead to missed detections, which making them ill-suited for the variable real space environment. The physical meaning and calculation process of orbital elements are introduced. Then main theories and algorithms for maneuver detection are analyzed and advantages and disadvantages of different methods are compared. After the algorithmic principles of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and their advantages in maneuver detection are analyzed, a maneuver detection method for space objects based on LSTM networks are processed. By analyzing changes in orbital elements between adjacent periods in Two-Line Element (TLE) data as features of space object maneuvers, the LSTM model is trained using TLE data to develop an LSTM-based algorithm for detecting orbital maneuvers. Tests on TLE data demonstrate that the proposed LSTM algorithm achieves higher detection accuracy compared to traditional methods, offering a new solution for orbit anomaly detection in large-scale satellite constellations.

       

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